Overblog
Editer l'article Suivre ce blog Administration + Créer mon blog
pantopolis.over-blog.com

théorie politique

World domination by 2030: « Dada XI » or « Uncle Trump »?

Publié le 14 Janvier 2025 par Pantopolis, january 2025

Donald Trump, speaking on Foxnews about Greenland, January 2025: ‘We are, quite frankly, the dominant predator’.

Bloody dreams of imperalist leaders

Bloody dreams of imperalist leaders

World domination by 2030:

« Dada XI » or « Uncle Trump »?

 

Since 2023, China has dominated virtually every stage of the electric vehicle production chain, from the production of the rare metals needed for electric batteries to the export of these vehicles by giant ships[1] . In the war for rare metals, China has largely prevailed[2] . Brands such as Nio, XPeng, SAIC, Geely, Zeekr and Seres, whose names are still unknown outside China, with the exception of the giant BYD, are playing an increasingly important role in the global electric vehicle landscape. Nearly 7 million vehicles are sold on the Chinese domestic market, which is massively supported by subsidies. This market accounts for 70% of sales of non-thermal vehicles (including hybrids). The result is clear for German «partner» Volkswagen: once the leading seller and manufacturer in China, its sales fell by 8.3% in 2024. By 2027, Volkswagen will have disappeared from the Chinese horizon.[3]

For the moment, Chinese electric cars defy all competition. Even Tesla, owned by the multi-billionaire Elon Musk, a virtual co-partner of Trump, which has set up a giga-factory in Berlin[4] . Its 12,000 workers (like their poverty-stricken brethren in China) are veritable wage slaves deprived of all rights (no collective agreements, no union-type buffer organisations, the obligation to work more than 40 hours a week instead of 35, for a pay cut by a quarter)[5] . By openly supporting the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, Elon Musk, with his stranglehold on disinformation network X and the US state apparatus, could count on the party’s schlong to subdue a German working class that is reluctant to accept the bootstrapped order of ultraliberalism. Dreaming of colonising Mars within 20 years, with or without his sperm and with atomic bombs[6], the megalomaniac Doctor Folamour of Xspace, Neuralink and Tesla is at least assured of transforming all his industrial sites into penal colonies.

Where Elon Musk and Xi Jinping show no spirit of competition, if not benevolent understanding, is their desire to build their «social model» with a ruthless «iron heel»: outlawing recalcitrant workers, creating concentration camps in the image of their factories, with round-the-clock surveillance by batteries of cameras and drones.

In 2015, Uncle XI (Xi Jinping known as XI Dada) launched «Made in China 2025», a programme designed to establish the global pre-eminence of the «Chinese model» by 2030[7].
According to a French geopolitical journal, Chinese capitalism has successfully achieved its objectives, all of which are strategic[8] :

- massive investment in military aviation, producing the J-20 and J-35A stealth fighters, the Y-20 transport aircraft and the H-20 strategic bomber, China’s defence and attack capabilities have been significantly improved.

- China is now one of the world leaders in the drone sector. DJI has become the world’s leading manufacturer of commercial drones (as well as military drones exported to Israel, Russia and Ukraine).

- the Middle Kingdom confirms its advances in space exploration (Tiangong space station, «Heavenly Palace») and programmes to explore the Moon and Mars).

- China has become one of the world’s largest manufacturers of agricultural equipment, as well as the world’s leading market for agricultural machinery. Xi Jinping, in his greetings on 1 January 2025, brushed aside the spectre of the recurrent Maoist famines (more than 22 million deaths between 1958 and 1961): «Grain production has broken the record of 700 million tonnes, filling the Chinese rice bowl with more Chinese grain».[9]

- China is said to have become a leader in the production of vaccines and biological drugs, with notable advances in gene editing (CRISPR)[10] and biopharmaceuticals. But there are legitimate doubts about this after the dazzling human disaster in the management of Covid-19 in 2020-2022...

- China is a world leader in «renewable energies», particularly solar panels and wind turbines. Nuclear energy is developing very rapidly, with advanced reactor technologies such as the Hualong 1.[11]

- It has the world’s largest and most advanced network of high-speed trains (over 42,000 km of track), a «made in China» system that is sure to dominate Asia, as it has already done in Indonesia (Jakarta-Bandung line).

- it has become the largest market for industrial robots, with national manufacturers such as Siasun Robotics[12]. Thanks to artificial intelligence (AI) and the IoT[13] , «intelligent manufacturing» solutions are being developed at breakneck speed, with China tied with the USA.

- it has become the world leader in the production of container ships, bulk carriers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers[14] , and therefore a major competitor to South Korea and Japan, which belong to the American sphere. Today, China’s shipbuilding capacity is 200 times greater than that of the United States.[15]

- China is now the world’s largest patent filer at WIPO (OMPI), with a leading position in 29 areas, compared with just 3 for Japan and 4 for the United States.[16]

The moth-eaten clothes of President XI

Despite these dazzling results, in the pure style of the old Soviet five-year plans, Dada’s  Jing China must, in 2025 and beyond, «export or die»[17] , whatever the cost.

Despite appearances, «made in China 2025» is struggling to convince investors. All the indicators are in the red. After a post-Covid-19 rebound of 18% in the first quarter of 2021, growth since 2022 has deflated like a dingy paper tiger, falling to 10. This was merely a catch-up recovery. Chinese Premier Li Qiang blustered at the Davos summit in January 2024, announcing growth of 5.2%. 100% - the real figure 4.6%. 100. President Xi Jinping sounded the same self-congratulatory trumpet in 2024: «the Party and people of China are fully confident about the future, because they have overcome the difficulties of the past year and, after triumphing over the Covid-19 epidemic, they have revived the economy and consolidated its development».[18]

Yet the crisis is a major one. In January 2024, industrial activity declined for the fourth consecutive month. One young person in five is unemployed. Some of the 295 million migrant workers from the countryside have had to leave the industrial centres without any compensation.[19]

In a country where construction accounts for 45% of GDP (compared with 20-25% for Western economies), the major shock was the receivership of Evergrande. In a country where construction accounts for 45% of GDP (20% to 25% for Western economies), the major shock in January 2024 was the receivership of Evergrande, a company with 70,000 employees and strangled by liabilities of $300 billion. With an overcapacity in the housing stock of around one hundred million homes Chinese cities became «haunted cities» overnight, following the good old American capitalist «model»[20] . Chinese householders, which have invested 70% of their savings in property, their life savings, are now more than ever on the lookout for a new home, and have fallen below the official poverty line. The Chinese consumer, who now opts for precautionary savings, couldn’t care less about buying the Chinese dragon’s electric cars «out of patriotism». This genetically modified ant’s gigantic savings account for 48% of GDP, compared compared with 18.6% in the United States...

In the wonderful paradise of «socialist consumption» - for lack of solvent customers - the official consumer price index has actually fallen. The price of a kilo of pork, so highly prized on the Chinese table, has fallen by 17% in 2022.

Faced with a sluggish domestic market and falling exports in 2023, Chinese manufacturers have had to cut their prices by 10%, and have embarked on a dangerous policy of dumping. But that’s without the retaliation policy practised by Uncle Trump and perhaps the members of the European Union led by the manoeuvring Ursula von der Leyen.

The sharp fall in Hong Kong’s stock market, which has lost 50% its value in five years, is a clear indication of the panic among Chinese and international investors. China is totally in the sights of the United States, which now imports more from Mexico than from China.[21]

A bankrupt capitalist model

Copying all the major capitalist economies that have been living on credit for decades, China is plunged into an endless spiral of debt. It represents 287.8% of GDP. This represents an increase of 13.5% in 2023 alone. This compares with a US debt of 125% of GDP and a Japanese debt of at least 250% of GDP. Nevertheless, China has the US by the throat with its holdings of US Treasury bonds.  Prudently, China has replaced around a quarter of the US treasury bills sold in 10 years with gold, of which it is now the leading producer and consumer... It is also the US’s biggest creditor, ahead of Japan. The big three of the world economy, China, Japan and the USA - to which we can add Germany in decline - are rocking on the same worm-eaten capitalist boat, which is in danger of sinking in the long term.

In February 2016, the Obama administration[22] , followed by the Trump and Biden administrations, launched a trade war to unbundle US industrial supply chains from Chinese suppliers, with the aim of massively relocating from China to the USA.

Manufacturers have relocated their production facilities outside China. One example is Taiwanese giant TSMC, which has built a second semiconductor production unit in Japan[23] . India, as well as Vietnam, the Philippines and Mexico, are the major beneficiaries of a windfall of $100 billion in 6 continuous months of disinvestment since 2023. Western companies are no longer reinvesting all their profits made in China, but are repatriating a significant proportion of them. Li Qiang may have trumpeted in Davos - after Dada Xi in San Francisco in November - that «Investing in China is not a risk, it’s an opportunity», but China is no longer a land of milk and honey for Western capital and its allies in Asia, where the sweat of Chinese proletarians was transformed into gold for international capitalism.

... and a demographic on crutches (as in Japan), before the final triumph of 2049[24] ?

At a time when China is announcing, as the USSR once did, that it will overtake the American «paper tiger» without looking back, it finds itself more senile than rich. The urbanisation of a rapidly rising middle class, favouring careers and personal enrichment at the expense of the baby-mother dyad, has caused the birth rate to plummet. Despite «Party» incentives to quickly repopulate bedrooms, China will lose 850,000 inhabitants by 2022 and could fall from 1.4 billion to 700 million by the end of the century[25]. India will already be the most populous country Earth in July 2023.[26]

China’s age pyramid is doomed to duplicate that of Japan, with both countries declining any immigration policy. The ratio of working people to pensioners will fall from 5:1 in 2020 to 1.6:1 in 2050. Hypercapitalist China has no social protection system for old age comparable to that of the «rich» imperialist countries that took over a century to build up as best they could. In an urbanised China already in decline, traditional family solidarity no longer exists, unless the State creates social shock absorbers. Dada Xi is calling on young Chinese women to grow and multiply, wherever the Han ethnic group exists, on land and sea[27]. These pro-birth preachings were aimed at a population already facing unemployment and prey to the sweet solitary sin of individualism.

The impossible «peaceful» economic model

Export or die» is the only realistic alternative for the Middle Kingdom. It cannot rely on the domestic consumer market, which accounts for 38% of gross GDP, compared with 70% in the United States.

Despite a recent upturn, Chinese exports are inevitably declining under the dual impact of rising Chinese wages and Western redeployment to other countries. China is relocating all over the place: to Africa, to Ethiopia, then to Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, countries with very low wages, to sell to the USA and Europe under other labels. A high-tech group from Shanghai is relocating some of its activities to Indonesia. In the Port-Saïd free trade zone in Egypt, a Chinese group is producing low-cost clothing that is now exported under the «made in Egypt» label.

Implementing an export strategy, starting with heavy-handed dumping, presupposes domination of the world market. In «green technologies» - electric batteries, solar panels and electric cars - China has succeeded in dominating the market by force: by massively subsidising its industries, closing its domestic market to Westerners and/or assimilated Westerners, and organising itself in a quasi-military fashion so that it can attack international markets with its phalanx of forces.

In terms of solar panels, China has deployed 216 Gigawatts in 2023 alone, which is more than the entire installed base in the US (175 GW) and now totals 610 GW. Chinese manufacturers are so heavily subsidised that the solar industry is in overcapacity. As for electric cars, the Chinese flagship BYF already sells more EVE vehicles than Tesla. Elon Musk said in January 2024 that «Chinese carmakers will demolish their rivals if we don’t put up tariffs»[28] . Trump has martially promised a 60% increase in customs duties, Europe has for the moment launched a simple routine bureaucratic investigation into dumping practices where Chinese EVEs will inevitably invade all the roads of Europe...

While China has a vital need to dominate the international market for new ‘green’ technologies, the western industrialised countries (and others like them) know that they are strategically dependent on China, which is constantly imposing quotas on its exports of ‘rare earths’, the essential components of electric batteries, of which it has secured a virtual monopoly. The trade war has become a reality for the 2020s, because China cannot absorb the production of green tech, which has increased by 30% in 2023, through its domestic market alone.

The end of the saying «never claim leadership» (Deng Xiaoping)

Thanks to Western capital, which was only too eager to take advantage of a «new gold rush», and thanks also to the consummate skill of the Chinese capitalist class led by Deng Xiaoping, Chinese State capitalism - mixed with private capitalism - demonstrated its ability to do, in one generation, what Western countries had taken over a century to do: turn a «developing» country into an ultra-industrialised country, capable of arming itself to the teeth overnight.

In 1991, Deng Xiaoping formulated his famous «24-character strategy»: «Observe calmly, secure our positions, manage affairs with composure, hide our abilities and bide our time, keep a low profile and never claim leadership».

But XI Jinping’s China now accounts for a quarter of world growth and is confronted everywhere by Anglo-Saxon imperialism. Neither is about to capitulate.

Xi - like Trump now, following in Biden’s footsteps - has written his name into the bloody history of world wars. 2027, the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is a date when Dada XI could make his move, taking the risk of annexing Taiwan by force. China has considerably strengthened its military capabilities, in particular its naval capacity, acquiring the capability to invade the island, which is only 160 km from the «Motherland».

The imperialist world war is lurking on the horizon: it is gradually affecting the two protagonists, America and China, even if the balance of power is still unequal. In the decisive area of productivity, China’s is no more than a quarter of that of Western countries. Aged before it was rich, China has already reached the peak of its power. Pressed on the defensive by rising US tariffs, China is almost at the brink of collapse.

The USA, the world’s most developed military-capitalist power, finds itself in an unreassuring situation: the US economy is showing tangible signs of entering recession. The Chicago PMI continued to fall, reaching 36.9 in December 2024, compared with 40.2 in November, below market forecasts of 42.5. This reflects a contraction in economic activity for the thirteenth consecutive month, at a time when the fragility of the financial and consumer systems is becoming clear.[29]

The exacerbation of imperialism - analysed in their time by Lenin, Bukharin and Rosa Luxemburg - reflects the implosion of a system which is postponing its own collapse through warlike expansion. The conflict in Ukraine since 2022, the inter-imperialist struggle for domination of the Middle East between Israel and the United States, Putin’s Russia and its ally the ayatollahs’ Iran, and Turkey waging war on its own behalf, have all translated the current division of the world into fire and iron.

Dada JI’s threats of a «new Asian order» in the Pacific, and those of the apprentice Doctors Folamour in Trump and Elon Musk, must therefore be taken very seriously.

Just as Mussolini cried out «A noi! A noi» to make his war seizures official (from Ethiopia to Corsica), Trump is trumpeting his future seizures: Greenland, Canada becoming 51 American state, the Panama Canal still belonging to the USA, the Gulf of Mexico renamed the American Gulf[30]. A Monroe Doctrine rewritten on a global scale for the sole benefit of Yankee imperialism.

When the Second World War began, the USA immediately had in mind the occupation of Greenland, which became effective in April 1941 following an agreement between the Danish ambassador to the USA and the Roosevelt government; then that of Iceland, effective in January 1942 (40,000 American soldiers for 126,000 Icelanders). As the conflict spread, particularly in the Pacific zone, the occupation of strategic islands by the allied armies (USA, New Zealand, Australia) accelerated: between 1942 and 1945, French New Caledonia became de facto American...

Pantopolis, 13 January 2025.

 

 

 


[1] https://www.automobile-propre.com/articles/les-marques-chinoises-commandent-47-navires-geants-pour-envahir-le-monde-avec-leurs-voitures-electriques/. In 2024, BYD sold 400,000 electric cars outside China.

[2] Guillaume Pitron, La guerre des métaux rares. La face cachée de la transition énergétique et numérique, Éditions les liens qui libèrent, September 2023.

[3] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2025/01/10/industrie-automobile-les-autorites-chinoises-laissent-le-darwinisme-faire-son-office_6491250_3234.html

[4] In April 2022, Musk inaugurated a gigafactory in Texas, capable of producing 500,000 electric vehicles a year, including the long-awaited Cybertruck (already in use in Kadyrov’s Chechnya, but armed with a machine gun...). In Mexico, Tesla has invested more than $5 billion to produce 1 million vehicles a year in Monterrey, despite a chronic water shortage in the region. See: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/automobile/tesla-elon-musk-confirme-l-installation-d-une-mega-usine-au-mexique-avec-a-terme-un-million-de-voitures-produites-par-an_5692691.html.

[5] L’Humanité, 7 January 2025, https://www.humanite.fr/monde/berlin/la-giga-factory-tesla-de-berlin-laboratoire-de-lultracapitalisme-delon-musk.

[6] Musk is said to have «donated» his sperm to seed a «Martian colony», where a million human zombies should be «living», or rather dying, by 2044 (cf. Le Figaro, 17 July 2024, Jeanne Sénéchal, «Un million de personnes d’ici 20 ans : le projet fou d’Elon Musk pour la conquête de Mars». This «brilliant» Doctor Strangelove had previously had the idea of sending atomic bombs to Mars to «heat» the atmosphere... (Le Parisien, 7 July 2022).

[7] https://shs.cairn.info/l-occident-face-a-la-renaissance-de-la-chine--9782738144652-page-27?lang=fr (Claude, Meyer, Odile Jacob, 2018).

[8] Alex Wang, in Conflits magazine, 28 December 2024: https://www.revueconflits.com/2025-made-in-china-a-atteint-la-plupart-de-ses-objectifs/

[9] http://fr.china-embassy.gov.cn/fra/zgyw/202501/t20250102_11525912.htm

[10] CRISPR is a system for correcting or modifying the expression of genes responsible for hereditary diseases.

[11] Pressurised water nuclear reactor (PWR)   with a capacity of around 1,100 MWe. As of January 2025, 7 Hualong-1 reactors are operational, 14 are under construction and 16 are planned.

[12] Statista, 28 Nov. 2023, article by Tristan Gaudiaut: «China is massively robotising». In 2023, installations of industrial robots reached a world record, with more than 550,000 units deployed, representing an annual increase of 5%. More than half of these robots, some 290,000, were installed in China (https://fr.statista.com/infographie/28524/nombre-de-robots-industriels-installes-par-pays/).

[13] The Internet of Things (IoT) refers both to the process of connecting physical objects to the Internet and to the network that connects these objects.

[14] LNG: liquefied natural gas. In French: GNL: gaz naturel liquéfié.

[15] Revue Géo, 13 July 2023: https://www.geo.fr/geopolitique/alerte-pentagone-la-chine-pourrait-produire-200-fois-plus-de-navires-de-guerre-que-les-etats-unis-chantiers-flotte-mer-chine-meridionale-215684

[16] https://www.revueconflits.com/2025-made-in-china-a-atteint-la-plupart-de-ses-objectifs/

[17] Hitler, 30 January 1939: «wir müssen exportieren oder sterben». Source: Franz Knipping, Machtbewusstsein in Deutschland am Vorabend des Zweiten Weltkrieges, Ferdinand Schöningh, Paderborn, 1984, p. 232.

[18] «China 2024», La Tribune 18 December 2024, by Christophe Stener.

[19] Le Monde, 22 October 2022: https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2023/10/22/en-chine-les-habitants-des-campagnes-grands-oublies-des-statistiques-officielles-sur-le-chomage_6195994_3234.html.

[20] There are more than 3,800 «ghost cities» in the USA, mainly in the «Wild West», when mining towns grew like mushrooms as gold and oil were discovered. Detroit, the legendary city of the automobile, has shrunk from two million inhabitants in the 1960s to just 700,000 today... 80,000 buildings have been abandoned.

[21] Courrier international, 12 September 2023: www.courrierinternational.com/article/libre-echange-le-premier-partenaire-commercial-des-etats-unis-n-est-plus-la-chine-mais-le-mexique#:~:text=s’interrogates%20%E2%80%9CBloomberg%E2%80%9D.&text=In%20the%20first%20semester%202023%2C%20the%20China%20(203%20billi).

[22] Michel de Grandi, Les Echos, 17 February 2016, «Barack Obama organises his ‘anti-China’ summit».

[23] «TSMC launches mass production at its Kumamoto plant in Japan» (Radio Taiwan International, 27 December 2024).

[24] Hundredth anniversary of the «People’s Republic» of China, a «people’s democratic dictatorship».

[25] Alternatives économiques, January 2025, special issue no. 130, p. 46-47.

[26] 14 March 2023: https://geoconfluences.ens-lyon.fr/actualites/veille/breves/inde-pays-le-plus-peuple

[27] «Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth and subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the air and over every living thing that moves upon the earth» (Bible, Genesis, 1, 28).

[28] La Tribune, 15 February 2024.

[29] https://or.fr/actualites/annee-2025-demarre-avec-risque-extreme-economie-usa-marches-3476.

[30] 20 minutes/AFP, 8 January 205: https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/etats-unis/4132526-20250108-etats-unis-trump-ecarte-idee-annexion-armee-canal-panama-groenland

Commenter cet article